Port: A lot of Democrats voted in the NDGOP's primaries last night
There were about four Republican ballots cast for every one Democratic ballot, on average. The last time the ratio was that high was 2016 when Dems crossed over for Gov. Doug Burgum. The North Dakota Republican Party's U.S. House primary saw a low turnout of Democrats in its primaries, with many Democrats appearing to have jumped ballots. The Democratic-NPL defended their actions against efforts to encourage Democrats to cross over and vote for Republicans in the Republican Party. The average vote total for Democratic statewide candidates was 19,098, a more than 14% decrease from the last election cycle, the 2022 midterm primary, and a more over 44% decline from 2020. The party's focus is on the nomination of a Republican candidate who draws significant numbers of Democratic voters. The Democrat-NPP also highlighted the decline in participation due to the party's decline. The Republican vs. Democrat primary vote ratio has been trending up since the 2018 election cycle due to former Miss America and ex-U.S House candidate Cara Mund's appeal to Democrats, who have been gaining popularity with Democrats. Despite this, the Democratic vote total in 2024 was lower than any year since 2016.
Published : 3 weeks ago by Rob Port in Politics
MINOT — When mysterious text messages urged Democrats to cross over and vote for Rick Becker in the North Dakota Republican Party's U.S. House primary, the Democratic-NPL quickly attacked the gambit.
They wanted their voters to stay at home on their ballot. "Democrats vote for Democrats. That's the line I've been saying about anyone trying to get us to cross over or mess with the Republican primary," party chair Adam Goldwyn told me. "We encourage every independent and every patriotic American to follow us."
For those of you who didn't vote in the primary — and that's most eligible North Dakota voters, given that Tuesday night's turnout was just over 20% — it's a partisan ballot. You must choose to vote either for the Republican candidates or the Democratic candidates, because the point is to nominate each party's candidates for the general election in November.
Tuesday night, many Democrats seem to have jumped ballots. The average vote total for Democratic statewide candidates was 19,098, a more than 14% decrease from the last election cycle, which was the 2022 midterm primary, and a more than 44% decline from 2020, the last primary in a presidential cycle.
Republican turnout was lackluster for a presidential cycle, too — the average 85,057 vote count was down nearly 15% from 2020 — but the Democrats really bottomed out.
Want to know why they're sensitive about people urging Democrats to vote on the Republican ticket? That's why.
The Democratic vote total for 2024 was lower than any year since 2016, and there's probably a consistent reason why the Democrats hit bottom those years. Each of those cycles featured a Republican candidate who drew a significant number of Democratic voters.
It can be hard to remember, given how Gov. Doug Burgum has morphed into a MAGA sycophant for disgraced former President Donald Trump, but in 2016, when he was first running for public office, he was widely seen as a moderate. So much so that he drew a large number of Democratic voters into Republican primary, where he was competing for the nomination with former Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem.
We know this happened because that year, the ratio of Republican ballots cast to each Democratic ballot cast spiked in a big way.
The ratio has been trending up since the 2018 election cycle, and a lot of that has to do with the moribund state of the North Dakota Democratic-NPL. The party's decline has resulted in fewer voters bothering to participate. They're in a bit of a spiral, but election night saw another high-water mark for the Republican vs. Democrat primary vote ratio.
And the reason? Former Miss America and erstwhile U.S. House candidate Cara Mund, a celebrity candidate who doesn't have anywhere near Burgum's appeal to voters but does, despite her indignant insistence that she's a Republican, count on a lot of support from Democrats. This is why the 2024 primary vote saw Republicans with their second-highest ratio in the last 24 years.
Mund took a distant third in the primary, but she did lure some Democratic voters to the Republican ticket, to the chagrin of Democrats.
On a related note, I had predicted that Tuesday night's turnout was going to be low, and I was right. It was low, but not as low as I thought it was going to be. The not-yet-official Secretary of State's election results show a 20.11% turnout rate. The average turnout for primary elections since the 2000 cycle is 22.45%. But, we should acknowledge that this is a presidential election cycle, where we typically see a spike in turnout.
The turnout for the 2020 primary was 27%. The turnout in 2016 was 24.51%.
So, yes, low, but not as low as I had calculated.
I had based my prediction on the low early voting numbers, but what I was detecting wasn't just low turnout but also a shift in voter behavior. It seems fewer people voted in advance of the election, but more people voted on Election Day. That's probably because of growing Republican skepticism of mail-in ballots and early voting.
Again, overall turnout was low, but how North Dakota voters cast their ballots also seems to have changed, and that's worth thinking about.